Heat pump vs gas: how to compare running cost
To compare a heat pump with a gas furnace, put both on one unit: dollars per MMBtu of heat delivered. Two prices and two efficiencies are enough.
The formula
One kWh is 3,412 Btu (EIA), so one MMBtu of electricity is 293.1 kWh. Electric heat at 100% efficiency costs price in cents times 293.1 divided by 100, in dollars per MMBtu. A heat pump divides that by its COP: a COP of 3 delivers 3 units of heat for each unit of electricity.
Gas is sold per Mcf (1,000 cubic feet). EIA gives 1 cubic foot as 1,036 Btu, so 1 Mcf is 1.036 MMBtu. A furnace at 95% efficiency costs the gas price divided by 1.036 and by 0.95. The ratio of the two costs at 100% efficiency is the break-even COP: a heat pump with a seasonal COP above it is cheaper to run.
U.S. average and the spread
At the 2025 U.S. averages (17.30 cents per kWh, $15.34 per Mcf) the break-even COP is 3.25. Across the 45 states with both prices it runs from 1.73 in Florida to 5.81 in Alaska. In 17 of the 45 states the break-even is at or below 3.0, so a heat pump with a seasonal COP of 3 is cheaper to run than a 95% gas furnace at these prices.
United States, Break-even COP of a heat pump against a 95% gas furnace, 2025: EIA retail sales and natural gas prices, 2025.
CSVWhere a heat pump wins easily
| State | Electricity, cents per kWh | Gas, $ per Mcf | Heat pump (COP 3), $ per MMBtu | Gas furnace (95%), $ per MMBtu | Break-even COP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 15.24 | $25.48 | $14.9 | $25.9 | 1.73 |
| Arkansas | 12.84 | $19.25 | $12.5 | $19.6 | 1.92 |
| Georgia | 14.73 | $20.42 | $14.4 | $20.7 | 2.08 |
| Louisiana | 12.57 | $17.39 | $12.3 | $17.7 | 2.08 |
| Washington | 13.11 | $17.62 | $12.8 | $17.9 | 2.15 |
| Hawaii | 40.59 | $52.38 | $39.7 | $53.2 | 2.24 |
| Texas | 15.47 | $19.42 | $15.1 | $19.7 | 2.30 |
| Arizona | 15.32 | $18.58 | $15.0 | $18.9 | 2.38 |
Source: EIA retail sales 2025 (electricity) and EIA natural gas residential prices 2025; conversions from the EIA Energy Explained units page. Retrieved 2026-10-02. CSV, 45 rows.
Where gas still wins
| State | Electricity, cents per kWh | Gas, $ per Mcf | Heat pump (COP 3), $ per MMBtu | Gas furnace (95%), $ per MMBtu | Break-even COP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | 26.09 | $12.96 | $25.5 | $13.2 | 5.81 |
| Michigan | 20.01 | $10.92 | $19.5 | $11.1 | 5.29 |
| Wisconsin | 18.16 | $10.74 | $17.7 | $10.9 | 4.88 |
| New Jersey | 22.63 | $14.21 | $22.1 | $14.4 | 4.59 |
| Illinois | 17.69 | $11.25 | $17.3 | $11.4 | 4.54 |
| Idaho | 11.82 | $7.69 | $11.5 | $7.8 | 4.43 |
| New Mexico | 15.08 | $9.83 | $14.7 | $10.0 | 4.42 |
| New York | 26.39 | $17.58 | $25.8 | $17.9 | 4.33 |
Source: EIA retail sales 2025 and EIA natural gas residential prices 2025. Retrieved 2026-10-02. CSV, 45 rows.
Missing states have no residential gas price in the EIA file for 2025: no data for those, and they are not in the tables.
What the heat pump's COP really is
A COP is not one number. It falls as the outdoor temperature falls, and manufacturers publish different figures at different temperatures. This site has no seasonal COP by state: no data. Use the model's rated seasonal figure and a cold-climate figure if you live where it freezes.
The table below shows annual fuel cost for 50 MMBtu of heat, an illustrative need of this site and not a measurement of any house. Real need depends on the building, which this site does not have.
| State | Gas furnace | Heat pump, COP 2.0 | Heat pump, COP 2.5 | Heat pump, COP 3.0 | Heat pump, COP 3.5 | Heat pump, COP 4.0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | $987 | $1,133 | $907 | $756 | $648 | $567 |
| California | $1,118 | $2,384 | $1,907 | $1,589 | $1,362 | $1,192 |
| New York | $893 | $1,934 | $1,547 | $1,289 | $1,105 | $967 |
| Massachusetts | $1,273 | $2,233 | $1,787 | $1,489 | $1,276 | $1,117 |
| Washington | $895 | $961 | $768 | $640 | $549 | $480 |
| Minnesota | $558 | $1,159 | $927 | $773 | $662 | $580 |
Source: Computed from EIA retail sales, 2025 and EIA gas prices 2025 for an assumed 50 MMBtu of heat a year. Retrieved 2026-10-02. CSV, 6 rows.
Weather scales the need
A colder state needs more heat. Heating degree days measure how far and how long the temperature stays below 65°F. Minnesota's 1991-2020 normal is several times Texas's. The same house would use proportionally more heat in the colder place, so the dollar gap between options widens with cold even when the ratio between them does not change.
| State | Heating degree days, 1991-2020 normal | Heating degree days, 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Texas | 2,035 | 1,519 |
| California | 3,253 | 2,525 |
| New York | 6,495 | 5,918 |
| Massachusetts | 6,635 | 6,063 |
| Washington | 5,939 | 5,191 |
| Minnesota | 9,035 | 8,147 |
Source: NOAA NCEI nClimDiv statewide heating degree days (base 65°F), files dated 2026-09-04. Retrieved 2026-10-02. CSV, 6 rows.
What the comparison leaves out
It leaves out the cost of the equipment and ducts, any rebates, the fixed monthly gas charge you save if you drop gas, and the cost of cooling you may already have. It uses state average prices, which can differ from your rate. Propane and oil homes should replace the gas price with their own fuel price.
Key facts and where they come from
| Fact | Value | Source | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Btu per kWh | 3,412 | EIA Energy Explained, units and calculators | retrieved 2026-10-02 |
| Btu per cubic foot of natural gas | 1,036 | EIA Energy Explained, units and calculators | retrieved 2026-10-02 |
| Btu per therm | 100,000 | EIA Energy Explained, units and calculators | retrieved 2026-10-02 |
| U.S. home electricity price | 17.30 cents per kWh | EIA retail sales, 2025 | 2025 annual |
| U.S. residential gas price | $15.34 per Mcf | EIA natural gas prices, residential | 2025 annual |
| U.S. break-even COP vs 95% furnace | 3.25 | Computed from the two prices above | 2025 |
| Lowest break-even state: Florida | 1.73 | Computed from EIA 2025 prices | 2025 |
| Highest break-even state: Alaska | 5.81 | Computed from EIA 2025 prices | 2025 |
| States with both prices | 45 | EIA retail sales and EIA gas prices | 2025 |
| States with break-even at or below 3.0 | 17 | Computed from EIA 2025 prices | 2025 |
| Minnesota heating degree days, normal | 9,035 | NOAA NCEI nClimDiv | 1991-2020 normal |
| Texas heating degree days, normal | 2,035 | NOAA NCEI nClimDiv | 1991-2020 normal |
Related guides
Questions
Is a heat pump cheaper to run than gas?
It depends on prices and the heat pump's real efficiency. At 2025 U.S. averages, a COP of 3.25 matches a 95% gas furnace. Above that it costs less.
What is the break-even COP?
The COP at which a heat pump and a gas furnace cost the same per unit of heat. It is electric cost per MMBtu at 100% divided by gas cost per MMBtu at the furnace's efficiency.
Why does COP matter?
COP is units of heat delivered per unit of electricity. It falls in the cold, so a rated figure can overstate winter performance.
Which state has the best case for a heat pump on running cost?
Florida, with a break-even COP of 1.73 in 2025.
Which state has the weakest case?
Alaska, at 5.81.
Does this include installation?
No. It covers fuel only.
What if I use propane or oil?
Replace the gas price with your fuel's cost per MMBtu. This site has no propane or oil price by state: no data.
Is electric resistance heat expensive?
At the U.S. average it costs 3.3 times a 95% gas furnace per unit of heat: electricity $51 per MMBtu against $16 for gas.