EVs will overload the grid: partly true
Partly The claim: “EVs will overload the grid” That is 29.0 TWh against 4,058 TWh sold. California has the largest share at 3.95%. Energy is one part of the grid question; we have no hourly load or neighbourhood feeder data, so peak demand is not tested here.
0.71% of sales today
AFDC counts 5,689,100 battery electric cars registered across the 51 states in 2025, 1.9% of 294 million light-duty vehicles. At the median EPA rating of 37.8 kWh per 100 miles (913 models, 2024 to 2026) and 13,476 miles, one EV uses 5,095 kWh a year.
Together that is 29.0 TWh, 0.71% of the 4,058 TWh sold to all customers. In 9 states the share is 1% or more.
Monthly picture and the 10 highest states
EV charging against monthly electricity sales, 2025: 12 rows
| Month of 2025 | EV charging, % of monthly sales |
|---|---|
| Jan | 0.67 |
| Feb | 0.75 |
| Mar | 0.79 |
| Apr | 0.82 |
| May | 0.77 |
| Jun | 0.68 |
| Jul | 0.59 |
| Aug | 0.62 |
| Sep | 0.70 |
| Oct | 0.75 |
| Nov | 0.81 |
| Dec | 0.72 |
Charging is spread evenly (our scenario): 0.82% in Apr when sales are lowest, 0.59% in Jul when they peak.
CSVIf the whole fleet switched
Our scenario: every light-duty vehicle in the registration count becomes an EV with the same use. The energy need would be 1,497 TWh, 37% of today's sales. The scenario ignores timing: it sizes the change and does not forecast it. It shows why planners track EV growth, not that the grid is failing now.
The EV count grew from 1,454,400 in 2021 to 5,689,100 in 2025 (AFDC, rounded to 100).
All 51 states: 0.71% nationally, 0.03% to 3.95% by state
| California | 1,843,100 | 4.82 | 9,390 | 237,957 | 3.95 | 81.9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawaii | 35,100 | 3.21 | 179 | 9,137 | 1.96 | 61.0 |
| New Jersey | 210,000 | 2.79 | 1,070 | 73,064 | 1.46 | 52.6 |
| Colorado | 162,800 | 2.92 | 829 | 56,652 | 1.46 | 50.2 |
| Washington | 236,400 | 3.44 | 1,204 | 91,044 | 1.32 | 38.5 |
| Massachusetts | 113,900 | 2.04 | 580 | 51,741 | 1.12 | 55.1 |
| Vermont | 11,900 | 2.07 | 61 | 5,473 | 1.11 | 53.5 |
| Nevada | 85,600 | 3.25 | 436 | 39,846 | 1.09 | 33.6 |
| Maryland | 120,500 | 2.39 | 614 | 59,503 | 1.03 | 43.3 |
| Utah | 68,400 | 2.13 | 348 | 35,074 | 0.99 | 46.7 |
| Connecticut | 48,800 | 1.65 | 249 | 27,570 | 0.90 | 54.7 |
| Florida | 450,400 | 2.35 | 2,295 | 257,889 | 0.89 | 37.9 |
| Oregon | 98,000 | 2.55 | 499 | 61,567 | 0.81 | 31.9 |
| Arizona | 141,800 | 2.13 | 722 | 91,552 | 0.79 | 37.1 |
| New York | 209,300 | 1.84 | 1,066 | 143,490 | 0.74 | 40.3 |
| New Hampshire | 16,100 | 1.14 | 82 | 11,104 | 0.74 | 64.9 |
| Delaware | 16,000 | 1.71 | 82 | 11,578 | 0.70 | 41.3 |
| Rhode Island | 9,800 | 1.21 | 50 | 7,404 | 0.67 | 55.5 |
| District of Columbia | 12,900 | 4.23 | 66 | 10,241 | 0.64 | 15.2 |
| Illinois | 164,900 | 1.60 | 840 | 135,395 | 0.62 | 38.8 |
| Michigan | 112,600 | 1.30 | 574 | 100,118 | 0.57 | 44.1 |
| Maine | 11,900 | 0.94 | 61 | 11,037 | 0.55 | 58.7 |
| Georgia | 161,200 | 1.63 | 821 | 153,566 | 0.53 | 32.7 |
| Virginia | 134,900 | 1.70 | 687 | 144,674 | 0.48 | 27.9 |
| Minnesota | 59,800 | 1.14 | 305 | 65,738 | 0.46 | 40.7 |
| North Carolina | 121,000 | 1.30 | 616 | 140,584 | 0.44 | 33.7 |
| Pennsylvania | 113,400 | 1.10 | 578 | 143,317 | 0.40 | 36.8 |
| Texas | 387,400 | 1.45 | 1,974 | 519,700 | 0.38 | 26.2 |
| Alaska | 4,100 | 0.72 | 21 | 6,118 | 0.34 | 47.6 |
| Wisconsin | 41,900 | 0.74 | 213 | 70,180 | 0.30 | 41.0 |
| Ohio | 94,200 | 0.90 | 480 | 161,934 | 0.30 | 33.1 |
| Missouri | 43,700 | 0.76 | 223 | 80,114 | 0.28 | 36.7 |
| Idaho | 14,100 | 0.68 | 72 | 26,800 | 0.27 | 39.2 |
| New Mexico | 16,600 | 0.84 | 85 | 31,578 | 0.27 | 32.0 |
| Tennessee | 55,400 | 0.84 | 282 | 106,552 | 0.26 | 31.6 |
| Indiana | 47,200 | 0.74 | 240 | 103,487 | 0.23 | 31.3 |
| Montana | 6,900 | 0.65 | 35 | 15,371 | 0.23 | 35.3 |
| Kansas | 18,700 | 0.70 | 95 | 41,971 | 0.23 | 32.5 |
| South Carolina | 35,700 | 0.68 | 182 | 85,619 | 0.21 | 31.0 |
| Oklahoma | 26,800 | 0.62 | 137 | 75,115 | 0.18 | 29.4 |
| Nebraska | 11,800 | 0.59 | 60 | 37,624 | 0.16 | 27.2 |
| Alabama | 24,400 | 0.49 | 124 | 89,221 | 0.14 | 28.3 |
| Kentucky | 20,700 | 0.51 | 105 | 75,919 | 0.14 | 27.3 |
| Iowa | 15,100 | 0.47 | 77 | 58,568 | 0.13 | 27.9 |
| Arkansas | 12,300 | 0.44 | 63 | 52,963 | 0.12 | 26.7 |
| Louisiana | 22,600 | 0.59 | 115 | 98,075 | 0.12 | 19.9 |
| South Dakota | 3,000 | 0.32 | 15 | 13,813 | 0.11 | 34.2 |
| West Virginia | 5,000 | 0.34 | 25 | 33,683 | 0.08 | 22.4 |
| Mississippi | 7,200 | 0.26 | 37 | 49,611 | 0.07 | 28.2 |
| Wyoming | 1,900 | 0.28 | 10 | 17,336 | 0.06 | 20.1 |
| North Dakota | 1,900 | 0.23 | 10 | 30,339 | 0.03 | 13.7 |
California 3.95% and North Dakota 0.03%: 9 states are at 1% or more, 1 at 2% or more. Each EV is assumed to use 5,095 kWh a year (13,476 miles at 37.8 kWh per 100 miles).
CSVResize the fleet
Defaults: today's registered EVs in the chosen state, the EPA median consumption and the FHWA average miles.
What this does not show
Energy over a year does not describe the hour when many cars plug in, or a local transformer. Our data has no hourly load, no charger power and no feeder limits, so we do not call the grid safe or unsafe. Registrations count cars, not miles: the 13,476 miles per EV is the FHWA average per driver, our scenario.
California is the place to watch in our data: 1,843,100 EVs and 3.95% of its sales.
Map: where EV energy is a larger share of sales
- 0.03% to 0.16%
- 0.16% to 0.30%
- 0.30% to 0.62%
- 0.62% to 0.99%
- 0.99% to 3.95%
Darker = a larger share. California 3.95%, North Dakota 0.03%.
Keep reading
Sources and dates
| Source | Data period | Retrieved | Used here for |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFDC vehicle registration counts by state (NLR, Experian) | light-duty vehicles, 2021 to 2025, rounded to 100 | 2 Oct 2026 | EV registrations by state, 2021 and 2025 |
| EPA and DOE fueleconomy.gov vehicles.csv | model years 2024 to 2026, 913 electric models | 2 Oct 2026 | Median kWh per 100 miles |
| FHWA Highway Statistics: annual miles per driver | average miles per driver | 2 Oct 2026 | 13,476 miles a year |
| EIA electricity retail sales, annual and monthly (API v2) | annual 2010 to 2025, monthly to Jul 2026 | 1 Oct 2026 | Retail sales by state 2025 and monthly U.S. sales |
Questions
How much electricity do electric cars use in the U.S.?
About 29.0 TWh a year on our scenario, 0.71% of the 4,058 TWh of retail sales in 2025.
Which state has the biggest EV load?
California at 3.95% of its retail sales (1,843,100 EVs), then Hawaii at 1.96% and New Jersey at 1.46%.
How much does one EV use a year?
5,095 kWh: 13,476 miles at the EPA median of 37.8 kWh per 100 miles, which is 425 kWh a month.
What if every car were electric?
On our scenario 1,497 TWh a year, 37% of 2025 sales. It is an upper bound for planning, not a forecast.
Do EVs raise the summer peak?
Our data has no hourly charging profile. Spread evenly, EVs add 0.59% to Jul sales, the peak month, against 0.82% to Apr.
How fast is the EV fleet growing?
AFDC shows 1,454,400 battery electric cars in 2021 and 5,689,100 in 2025, a factor of 3.9.
Are plug-in hybrids counted?
No. They are 1,765,700 more vehicles in the AFDC file; we count battery electric cars only, so the energy figure is lower than with hybrids.
What is the data period?
Registrations are for 2025, rounded to 100 (AFDC file built 2 Oct 2026); retail sales are the 2025 EIA annual figure.