Heat pumps don't work in cold states: partly true
Partly The claim: “Heat pumps don't work in cold states” That is a fuel-cost result, not a performance test. Our model holds COP at 3.0 in every state and does not model any loss of heat output in cold weather, so it cannot show whether a heat pump works at a given temperature.
17 of 45 states save at COP 3.0
The heat pump model compares the cost of one MMBtu of delivered heat: gas at EIA's 2025 residential price through a 95% furnace, against electricity at the 2025 home price through a heat pump at a constant COP of 3.0. 17 of the 45 states with a gas price come out cheaper with the heat pump.
Break-even COP is the number at which the two cost the same. It runs from 1.73 in Florida to 5.81 in Alaska.
Colder states need a higher COP: r = +0.68
r = +0.68 across 42 states; break-even COP is the COP at which a heat pump costs the same as the gas furnace. Alaska is left out: its normal degree-day figure in the NOAA file is not usable.
| Group | States | Heating degree-days | Electricity, ¢/kWh | Gas, $/Mcf | Break-even COP | Saving at COP 3.0, % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coldest 10 states | 10 | 8,277 | 14.60 | 10.86 | 3.86 | -29 |
| Middle states | 22 | 5,820 | 15.32 | 14.03 | 3.36 | -12 |
| Warmest 10 states | 10 | 2,670 | 14.98 | 18.91 | 2.34 | +22 |
What the cold-state numbers say
In the 10 coldest states (median 8,277 degree-days) the median break-even COP is 3.86, so a COP of 3.0 does not reach it; in the 10 warmest (median 2,670) it is 2.34. Both prices are in the table: electricity at 14.6 cents in the cold group and 15.0 in the warm one, gas at $10.86 and $18.91 per Mcf.
Cold states that still save at COP 3.0: none.
All 51 states, coldest first
| North Dakota | 9,619 | 11.81 | 9.50 | $9.65 | $11.54 | -20 | 3.59 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 9,035 | 15.82 | 10.98 | $11.16 | $15.45 | -39 | 4.16 |
| Montana | 8,999 | 12.98 | 8.99 | $9.13 | $12.68 | -39 | 4.16 |
| Wyoming | 8,703 | 13.38 | 11.74 | $11.93 | $13.07 | -10 | 3.29 |
| Vermont | 8,577 | 22.92 | 18.00 | $18.29 | $22.39 | -22 | 3.67 |
| South Dakota | 7,977 | 13.38 | 9.86 | $10.02 | $13.07 | -30 | 3.91 |
| New Hampshire | 7,959 | 24.56 | 18.61 | $18.91 | $23.99 | -27 | 3.81 |
| Wisconsin | 7,934 | 18.16 | 10.74 | $10.91 | $17.74 | -63 | 4.88 |
| Colorado | 7,502 | 15.85 | 11.17 | $11.35 | $15.48 | -36 | 4.09 |
| Utah | 7,410 | 13.07 | 10.19 | $10.35 | $12.77 | -23 | 3.70 |
| Idaho | 7,220 | 11.82 | 7.69 | $7.81 | $11.55 | -48 | 4.43 |
| Michigan | 7,201 | 20.01 | 10.92 | $11.10 | $19.55 | -76 | 5.29 |
| Iowa | 7,082 | 13.72 | 10.61 | $10.78 | $13.40 | -24 | 3.73 |
| Massachusetts | 6,635 | 30.48 | 25.06 | $25.46 | $29.78 | -17 | 3.51 |
| Nebraska | 6,619 | 12.34 | 11.40 | $11.58 | $12.05 | -4 | 3.12 |
| New York | 6,495 | 26.39 | 17.58 | $17.86 | $25.78 | -44 | 4.33 |
| Illinois | 6,437 | 17.69 | 11.25 | $11.43 | $17.28 | -51 | 4.54 |
| Pennsylvania | 6,110 | 19.30 | 15.04 | $15.28 | $18.85 | -23 | 3.70 |
| Ohio | 6,062 | 16.96 | 13.85 | $14.07 | $16.57 | -18 | 3.53 |
| Indiana | 5,941 | 16.23 | 11.49 | $11.67 | $15.86 | -36 | 4.07 |
| Washington | 5,939 | 13.11 | 17.62 | $17.90 | $12.81 | +28 | 2.15 |
| New Jersey | 5,702 | 22.63 | 14.21 | $14.44 | $22.11 | -53 | 4.59 |
| Oregon | 5,633 | 15.37 | 16.71 | $16.98 | $15.02 | +12 | 2.65 |
| West Virginia | 5,359 | 15.41 | 13.80 | $14.02 | $15.05 | -7 | 3.22 |
| Missouri | 5,223 | 13.49 | 14.94 | $15.18 | $13.18 | +13 | 2.60 |
| Kansas | 5,140 | 14.56 | 14.81 | $15.05 | $14.22 | +5 | 2.84 |
| Delaware | 4,943 | 17.13 | 15.97 | $16.23 | $16.73 | -3 | 3.09 |
| New Mexico | 4,858 | 15.08 | 9.83 | $9.99 | $14.73 | -47 | 4.42 |
| Kentucky | 4,654 | 13.24 | 14.23 | $14.46 | $12.93 | +11 | 2.68 |
| Virginia | 4,577 | 15.28 | 16.79 | $17.06 | $14.93 | +13 | 2.62 |
| Tennessee | 3,961 | 13.18 | 11.84 | $12.03 | $12.88 | -7 | 3.21 |
| Nevada | 3,762 | 13.15 | 13.14 | $13.35 | $12.85 | +4 | 2.89 |
| Oklahoma | 3,725 | 13.12 | 14.38 | $14.61 | $12.82 | +12 | 2.63 |
| Arkansas | 3,547 | 12.84 | 19.25 | $19.56 | $12.54 | +36 | 1.92 |
| California | 3,253 | 32.54 | 22.01 | $22.36 | $31.79 | -42 | 4.26 |
| Georgia | 3,015 | 14.73 | 20.42 | $20.75 | $14.39 | +31 | 2.08 |
| Alabama | 2,820 | 16.10 | 17.56 | $17.84 | $15.73 | +12 | 2.64 |
| Mississippi | 2,521 | 14.03 | 16.65 | $16.92 | $13.71 | +19 | 2.43 |
| Arizona | 2,207 | 15.32 | 18.58 | $18.88 | $14.97 | +21 | 2.38 |
| Texas | 2,035 | 15.47 | 19.42 | $19.73 | $15.11 | +23 | 2.30 |
| Louisiana | 1,786 | 12.57 | 17.39 | $17.67 | $12.28 | +31 | 2.08 |
| Florida | 774 | 15.24 | 25.48 | $25.89 | $14.89 | +42 | 1.73 |
| Alaska | No data | 26.09 | 12.96 | $13.17 | $25.49 | -94 | 5.81 |
| District of Columbia | No data | 21.94 | 16.68 | $16.95 | $21.43 | -26 | 3.79 |
| Hawaii | No data | 40.59 | 52.38 | $53.22 | $39.65 | +25 | 2.24 |
| Connecticut | 6,356 | 29.38 | No data | No data | No data | No data | No data |
| Maryland | 4,952 | 19.48 | No data | No data | No data | No data | No data |
| Maine | 8,285 | 27.78 | No data | No data | No data | No data | No data |
| North Carolina | 3,607 | 14.02 | No data | No data | No data | No data | No data |
| Rhode Island | 6,308 | 29.46 | No data | No data | No data | No data | No data |
| South Carolina | 2,803 | 14.96 | No data | No data | No data | No data | No data |
17 of 45 states with a gas price show a saving at COP 3.0; 6 states have no gas price in our data (Connecticut, Maryland, Maine, North Carolina, Rhode Island and South Carolina). Sorted from the coldest.
CSVTry your own COP
Saving = 1 minus break-even COP divided by your COP. A lower COP, for example on the coldest days, lowers the saving.
The limit of this model
Stated plainly: the model uses a constant COP of 3.0 for every state and every hour. It does not include a fall in COP as outdoor temperature drops, defrost cycles, backup electric heat, equipment price, ducts or incentives. So the table answers one question, what a unit of heat costs at 2025 prices if COP is 3.0, and it cannot tell you whether a heat pump heats a home at minus 10 degrees.
Missing data: no gas price for Connecticut, Maryland, Maine, North Carolina, Rhode Island and South Carolina; Alaska's degree-day normal is unusable.
Map: break-even COP by state
- COP 1.73 to COP 2.60
- COP 2.60 to COP 3.12
- COP 3.12 to COP 3.70
- COP 3.70 to COP 4.26
- COP 4.26 to COP 5.81
Darker = a higher COP needed to match gas. Grey = no gas price in our data.
Keep reading
Sources and dates
| Source | Data period | Retrieved | Used here for |
|---|---|---|---|
| EIA electricity retail sales, annual and monthly (API v2) | annual 2010 to 2025, monthly to Jul 2026 | 1 Oct 2026 | Home electricity price 2025 |
| EIA natural gas prices, residential, annual and monthly | 2025 | 1 Oct 2026 | Residential gas price 2025 |
| NOAA NCEI nClimDiv statewide heating and cooling degree-days | 2015 to 2025, normals 1991 to 2020 (files dated 4 Sep 2026) | 2 Oct 2026 | Heating degree-days, 1991 to 2020 normals |
Questions
Do heat pumps work in cold states?
Our data cannot answer that. It tests fuel cost at COP 3.0: 0 of the 10 coldest states come out cheaper than gas and 9 of the 10 warmest.
What is break-even COP?
The COP at which the heat pump costs the same as the gas furnace. Below it the heat pump costs more. Across 45 states it runs 1.73 to 5.81.
Which cold state has the lowest break-even COP?
Wyoming at 3.29 among the 10 coldest; the highest is Wisconsin at 4.88.
How many states save with a heat pump?
17 of 45 states with a gas price at COP 3.0 and 2025 prices; the median across them is -17%, where a minus sign means the heat pump costs more.
Does the model include backup heat?
No. It has no backup heat, no defrost and no change of COP with temperature.
Why are six states missing?
Connecticut, Maryland, Maine, North Carolina, Rhode Island and South Carolina have no residential gas price in our EIA file, so no comparison is made.
What COP does the coldest state need?
North Dakota has 9,619 degree-days and a break-even COP of 3.59.
Where are the prices from?
EIA 2025 home electricity price and EIA 2025 residential gas price per Mcf, converted at 293.071 kWh and 1.036 MMBtu per Mcf.