Solar in Arizona: payback, sun by city and utility-scale capacity
Across 5 Arizona cities, yearly output runs from 1,687 kWh per kW in Flagstaff to 1,840 in Yuma. May is the best month at 179 kWh per kW and Dec the worst at 109. Arizona pays back in 11.2 years at $3.00 a watt (rank 14 of 51), 2.3 years shorter than the middle state. 1,750 kWh per kW (rank 3) at 15.32 ¢ (rank 27 from the top): sunshine drives it. Utility-scale solar in Arizona: 6,869 MW in 117 plants, 13.3% of 2025 generation; 8,395 MW more under construction or planned.
Sun inside Arizona: 5 cities, 9% apart
| Arizona city | kWh per kW a year | Against state point | Sun, kWh/m2 a day | Payback at $3.00 | Residents |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix | 1,755 | +0.3% | 6.51 | 11.2 | 1,624,832 |
| Tucson | 1,788 | +2.2% | 6.57 | 11.0 | 543,348 |
| Buckeye | 1,774 | +1.4% | 6.59 | 11.0 | 99,844 |
| Yuma | 1,840 | +5.2% | 6.84 | 10.6 | 98,461 |
| Flagstaff | 1,687 | -3.6% | 6.22 | 11.6 | 76,333 |
Arizona state point 33.36, -111.90; city points Phoenix 33.57, -112.09; Tucson 32.15, -110.87; Buckeye 33.43, -112.64; Yuma 32.52, -114.52; Flagstaff 35.19, -111.62. Panel and method: solar method.
Output by month in Arizona cities: 12 rows
| Arizona month | Phoenix | Tucson | Buckeye | Yuma | Flagstaff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 117.7 | 127.3 | 115.9 | 128.9 | 117.4 |
| Feb | 122.6 | 128.2 | 127.6 | 133.7 | 124.7 |
| Mar | 150.7 | 165.0 | 157.1 | 166.3 | 160.5 |
| Apr | 169.7 | 172.2 | 171.4 | 175.6 | 161.9 |
| May | 177.7 | 184.5 | 181.3 | 184.0 | 171.8 |
| Jun | 173.4 | 171.6 | 170.7 | 172.0 | 168.6 |
| Jul | 158.2 | 148.9 | 161.2 | 165.8 | 132.0 |
| Aug | 154.9 | 150.2 | 159.6 | 165.0 | 133.2 |
| Sep | 147.4 | 149.7 | 148.5 | 152.1 | 137.9 |
| Oct | 141.8 | 148.3 | 142.9 | 152.9 | 141.3 |
| Nov | 123.5 | 123.1 | 122.6 | 125.8 | 120.4 |
| Dec | 117.0 | 118.6 | 115.6 | 118.2 | 117.2 |
Arizona: 5 cities, best month 184 and worst 116 kWh per kW across them.
CSVBest and worst month in Arizona: May 179, Dec 109 kWh per kW
| Arizona month | kWh per kW | Price ¢ | Value per kW | kWh per kW per sun unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 117.3 | 14.72 | $17.27 | 0.79 |
| Feb | 122.6 | 15.20 | $18.64 | 0.77 |
| Mar | 154.2 | 15.14 | $23.35 | 0.76 |
| Apr | 170.5 | 15.67 | $26.72 | 0.74 |
| May | 179.0 | 15.71 | $28.12 | 0.73 |
| Jun | 170.4 | 15.23 | $25.95 | 0.71 |
| Jul | 156.5 | 15.34 | $24.01 | 0.70 |
| Aug | 158.3 | 15.17 | $24.01 | 0.70 |
| Sep | 148.1 | 15.27 | $22.61 | 0.71 |
| Oct | 140.7 | 15.55 | $21.88 | 0.74 |
| Nov | 123.3 | 15.66 | $19.31 | 0.77 |
| Dec | 108.8 | 15.46 | $16.82 | 0.80 |
Arizona: December to February give 20% of a year (rank 46 of 51, 1 = most winter); the best month is 1.6 times the worst. Output per unit of sun is highest in Dec (0.80) and lowest in Jul (0.70); PVWatts lowers cell output when the panel is hot, and the sun angle changes with the season. Our runs use one fixed 14% loss figure for every place, so snow or soiling in Arizona is not modelled separately.
Arizona: payback 11.2 years, rank 14 of 51
| Measure | Value | Rank of 51 | Median state |
|---|---|---|---|
| Output of 1 kW a year, kWh | 1,750 | 3 | 1,372 |
| Home price, ¢ per kWh | 15.32 | 27 | 15.37 |
| Value of 1 kW a year | $268 | 14 | $222 |
| Payback at $3.00 a watt | 11.2 years | 14 | 13.5 years |
EIA-861 (2024): 317,245 home net-metered systems in Arizona, 101.2 per 1,000 accounts (rank 4), average 8.1 kW.
Sizes and prices per watt in Arizona
| Arizona kW | kWh a year | Value a year | Cost at $2.50 | At $3.00 | At $3.50 | t CO2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 6,999 | $1,072 | $10,000 | $12,000 | $14,000 | 2.2 |
| 6 | 10,498 | $1,608 | $15,000 | $18,000 | $21,000 | 3.3 |
| 8 | 13,998 | $2,144 | $20,000 | $24,000 | $28,000 | 4.4 |
| 10 | 17,497 | $2,681 | $25,000 | $30,000 | $35,000 | 5.5 |
| 12 | 20,996 | $3,217 | $30,000 | $36,000 | $42,000 | 6.5 |
| Arizona $ per watt | 100% retail | 75% | 50% | 25% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2.00 | 7.5 | 9.9 | 14.9 | 29.8 |
| $2.50 | 9.3 | 12.4 | 18.7 | 37.3 |
| $3.00 | 11.2 | 14.9 | 22.4 | 44.8 |
| $3.50 | 13.1 | 17.4 | 26.1 | 52.2 |
| $4.00 | 14.9 | 19.9 | 29.8 | 59.7 |
Arizona: 1,750 kWh/kW × 15.32 ¢ = 268 a year per kW; the 30% column (7.8 years at $3.00) is arithmetic only.
CSVUtility-scale solar in Arizona: 6,869 MW
Arizona: 6,869 MW of operable utility-scale solar in 117 plants across 12 counties (EIA-860, 2025), rank 5 of 51; 945 W per resident, rank 4. Solar made 13.3% of Arizona's net generation in 2025 (EIA-923), rank 6, +6.5 points against the national share. Biggest plants: Sonoran Solar Energy in Maricopa County, 490 MW (2023); Agua Caliente Solar Project in Yuma County, 348 MW (2014); McFarland B Solar and Storage in Yuma County, 300 MW (2024). By county: Maricopa 3,095 MW, Pinal 1,441 MW, Yuma 1,185 MW, Pima 475 MW. Proposed: 4,270 MW under construction (22 plants) and 4,125 MW planned (14 plants); batteries 4,951 MW running and 8,495 MW proposed.
| Arizona year | MW added | Cumulative share of today's MW |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 32 | 0% |
| 2020 | 297 | 5% |
| 2021 | 381 | 10% |
| 2022 | 215 | 13% |
| 2023 | 1062 | 29% |
| 2024 | 1246 | 47% |
| 2025 | 1532 | 69% |
Net metering and CO2 in Arizona
EIA-861 (2024): 317,245 home net-metered systems in Arizona, 101.2 per 1,000 accounts (rank 4), average 8.1 kW.
6 kW in Arizona: 10,498 kWh a year displaces 3.3 t CO2 at 0.311 kg per kWh, +0.2 t against the average state.
Arizona utilities and solar payback
| Arizona utility | Homes | Price ¢ | Value of 1 kW | Payback at $3.00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Public Service Co | 1,256,120 | 16.45 | $288 | 10.4 yr |
| Salt River Project | 1,053,407 | 13.46 | $235 | 12.7 yr |
| Tucson Electric Power Co | 412,747 | 15.63 | $273 | 11.0 yr |
| UNS Electric, Inc | 95,191 | 16.02 | $280 | 10.7 yr |
| Trico Electric Cooperative Inc | 52,450 | 14.17 | $248 | 12.1 yr |
| Sulphur Springs Valley E C Inc | 46,008 | 13.49 | $236 | 12.7 yr |
| Mohave Electric Cooperative, Inc. | 41,009 | 11.20 | $196 | 15.3 yr |
| Navopache Electric Coop, Inc | 40,076 | 13.43 | $235 | 12.8 yr |
| Electrical Dist No3 Pinal County | 32,009 | 13.93 | $244 | 12.3 yr |
| Navajo Tribal Utility Authority | 27,014 | 16.63 | $291 | 10.3 yr |
| City of Mesa | 15,331 | 16.93 | $296 | 10.1 yr |
| USBIA-San Carlos Project | 11,432 | 19.49 | $341 | 8.8 yr |
Arizona among its neighbours
| Closest to Arizona | Payback, years | kWh per kW | Price, ¢ | Utility-scale solar, points of generation | Miles away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona (this page) | 11.2 | 1,750 | 15.32 | 13.3 | - |
| New Mexico | -0.0 | +34 | -0.24 | +2.6 | 329 |
| Nevada | +1.4 | +68 | -2.17 | +17.5 | 344 |
| California | -5.7 | -63 | +17.22 | +13.5 | 449 |
| Utah | +3.7 | -209 | -2.25 | +4.0 | 486 |
Arizona against its neighbours in the payback ranking
- -1 places, Maryland -0.1 years against Arizona
- +0 places, New Mexico -0.0 years against Arizona
- Arizona, rank 14: 11.2 years
- +2 places, Alaska +0.1 years against Arizona
- +3 places, Michigan +0.5 years against Arizona
Your numbers for Arizona
Limits in Arizona
Arizona: with the old 30% credit (IRS, ended 2025) payback would be 7.8 years instead of 11.2, so the calculator starts at 0%. No Arizona export rates in our data: output counts at 15.32 ¢. All limits.
Sources for Arizona
- PVWatts v8 (NLR), 5 Arizona cities and one state point: 1,750 kWh per kW
- EIA-860 2025 and EIA-923 2025: 6,869 MW of solar in Arizona
- EIA-861 2024: 317,245 net-metered systems in Arizona
- EIA retail sales 2025: 15.32 ¢ per kWh in Arizona
- IRS 25D (ended 2025): 7.8 years in Arizona with it; licences and periods for Arizona
More about Arizona
Arizona electricity hub, Arizona EV charging: 1,540 stations, where Arizona ranks for rooftop solar, 11.2 years against 51 states, Arizona calculators.
Questions
Arizona sunshine for solar panels?
1,750 kWh per kW a year at the state point, rank 3 of 51; from 1,687 in Flagstaff to 1,840 in Yuma.
Arizona utility-scale solar capacity?
6,869 MW in 117 plants (EIA-860), 945 W per resident, rank 4; 8,395 MW proposed.
Net metering in Arizona?
317,245 systems, 101.2 per 1,000 accounts, rank 4.
Winter cut in Arizona solar output?
December to February give 20% of the year; May makes 179 kWh per kW and Dec 109.
Arizona electricity from solar, what share?
13.3% of 2025 net generation, rank 6 of 51, +6.5 points against the nation.
Solar payback in Arizona?
11.2 years at $3.00 a watt; 9.3 at $2.50; 13.1 at $3.50; 1,750 kWh per kW at 15.32 ¢.
Where in Arizona is solar best?
Yes: 9% between Flagstaff and Yuma in yearly output.
Arizona pays half price for exports?
Payback 22.4 years at a 50% retail share.
CO2 displaced in Arizona?
3.3 t a year on 6 kW at 0.311 kg per kWh.
Federal solar credit in Arizona: still available?
Ended 2025 (IRS 25D); with it Arizona payback would be 7.8 years, not 11.2.